Answering the Call to Service: Rotary and the Decline of Global International and Humanitarian Aid
Greetings Rotarians,
I hope you have all been well! This blog post is going to be more technical in nature and policy-focused. It will focus on the decline of international and humanitarian aid globally. This phenomenon has often been discussed on the news. In my program at Lund University, it is discussed in almost every class, as many of my professors are humanitarian and development aid specialists.
While I am studying a Master of Science in Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation, international development and humanitarian assistance are hugely connected. Often, disaster risk reduction, humanitarian aid, development, and disaster recovery all occur in the same process. So, I would like to share with you some of my research on this and how it relates to Rotary. But first, some good news!
The Institute for Economics & Peace
Just last week, I was accepted to become a global ambassador for the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP), a research think-tank based out of Australia. The IEP has a strong partnership with Rotary International and gives online training for Rotarians on Positive Peacebuilding and the Global Peace Index. I am very excited to begin this journey and learn more about peace-building and how development aid and climate change adaptation relate to peace issues.
This blog post is building on the online training I completed and is in preparation for the IEP ambassador program starting this month. Many of the sights and figures mentioned in this blog come from IEP reports, which are accessible online. You can find them through this link: https://www.economicsandpeace.org/reports/.
Figure 1 - Acceptance for the IEP Ambassador Program
However, a short NOTE! While the blog will refer to the decline of USAID, this analysis will approach it holistically and include the decline of aid contributions from the UK and Europe. Due to the shifting and politicized nature that this topic can bring, I will disclaim that the views expressed here are my own and do not reflect the positions of my associated Rotary Clubs or Rotary International.
What the Aid Data Shows Us
If we look at the composition of Official Development Assistance (ODA), the total size of the pie was $274 billion in 2023 (IEP, 2025). ODA is international aid that is sent to support the welfare and development of developing countries. It can be bilateral (between two countries) or multilateral (international organizations or joint-development projects). ODA is the main funding for international aid for most low and middle-income countries. Figure 2 shows the size of ODA in 2023 as divided between the USA, Europe, the United Kingdom, and other donors.
Figure 2 - ODA funding in 2023
Source: IEP (2025)
ODA funds are used to improve literacy rates/education, health & sanitation, infrastructure, disease treatment and prevention, emergency/disaster relief aid, food and nutritional aid, etc. Many countries are dependent on international aid to meet public services and community development, reduce malnutrition and disease spread, provide access to clean water, and improve their lives.
Rotary International and the Rotary Foundation also invest in these priority ODA areas. You may see how ODA aligns with Rotary's seven areas of focus below (see Figure 3). Do you see any similarities and overlap? You bet!
Since the founding of Rotary over a century ago, the Rotary Foundation has invested over $4 billion in life-changing projects. Just last year, Rotary global grants provided over $81.5 million in funds, including $40.7 million in disease prevention and treatment, like the End Polio campaign (see figure 4). If any of you Rotarians have participated in international projects abroad, you will know how much these donations/funds can change lives. You can see its impact in most cases, or you align with its values/purpose. This is part of being a Rotarian.
Figure 3 - The Rotary Areas of Focus
Figure 4 - Rotary Foundation Global Grants, 2023 to 2024
Source: The Rotary Foundation website (2025)
Now, imagine the Rotary impact since its founding: $4 billion. Divide the total ODA budget from 2023 ($274 billion) by $4 billion, and you get a strong result. The official ODA globally is 68.5 times larger. This gives you an idea of how much money goes into this. But before we say "that is so much money!!!", let's put this in perspective.
The ODA contributions of the United States (23% of all ODA in 2023) are ONLY 0.25% of the entire US GDP. In contrast, our military budget is 3.4% (IEP, 2025). Take a look below (See Figure 5). This example shows how small the ODA/foreign aid budget actually is. Yet, despite its small size, it has a tremendously large impact.
Figure 5 - ODA as percentage of US GDP, 2023.
Source: IEP (2025)
When compared to other expenditures, ODA and international development aid costs across the United States and other Western countries are negligible. Sometimes, less than 1% of a country's budget (see Figure 6). However, for many aid-dependent countries, the influx of development aid is critical to improve livelihoods, access to resources, and life-saving services.
Over time, due to repeated natural disasters, civil wars, conflict, environmental degradation, poverty, and climate change, these countries remain dependent on foreign aid/ODA. Sometimes these negative events occur at the same time as is the case for many parts of Sub-Saharan Africa, Central Asia, and Latin America. And yet....ODA and international aid are declining across the board.
Figure 6 - Percentage of ODA in comparison to GDP/GNI
Source: The New Humanitarian (2025).
When The Domino Falls, They Keep Falling
The decline in ODA and international aid is becoming systemic as countries face more uncertain times, global risks, and a shifting geopolitical landscape. In Figure 7, you can see the ODA flows into developing countries from 2014 to 2025. Since 2023, there has been a strong decline due to the long-term impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the decline of USAID (IEP, 2025). Much of the international aid that was earmarked for developing countries was instead sent to Ukraine. Furthermore, the fear of a wider European war has reduced aid budgets further as European countries invest in their military and defense (IEP, 2025).
What is striking about the decline of international aid is that once one domino falls, everyone else does too. The significant reduction of USAID in the United States inspired the UK to reduce its ODA by 50% in February 2025 (IEP, 2025). Sweden, Switzerland, the Netherlands, Germany, and others followed suit, albeit by smaller percentages. The long-term consequence of this will be severe.
Figure 7 - Declines in ODA to Developing Countries, 2014 to 2025
Source: IEP (2025)
The IEP, in its most pessimistic scenario, suggests that ODA may decline in the coming years by 20 to 40%, from $50 billion to $115 billion in total reductions. In a more moderate scenario, reductions will be 20% across the world ($57 billion decline in foreign aid).
Do you remember the Rotary Foundation's total donations of $4 billion? This gives you a perspective of the scale and magnitude of these reductions. The question now becomes, if the United States and Europe do not offer assistance anymore, who will?
International aid may start to become more transactional and based on the returns on investment in terms of access to critical minerals, oil, and essential resources. Additionally, some have tried to align international aid with national security interests and priorities. The politicization of aid is not a new thing, but rather, politicians are being more open about it as an official policy.
What is also consequential is that while long-term international aid is declining, so too is more immediate humanitarian aid. Humanitarian aid meets those who are desperately impacted by natural and climate disasters, conflict, and humanitarian emergencies. Its sole purpose is to save lives and alleviate suffering. Yet, this is also in decline, making our ability to respond to huge disaster events weaker.
As shown in Figure 8, humanitarian aid is declining rapidly due to US funding cuts. In the past, US funds made up 40.32% of the entire humanitarian budget in 2024. However, the fall of one domino is leading to other dominoes falling. In 2023, the humanitarian budget was $42 billion in 2023. It has now declined to $3.7 billion in 2025 (ACAPS, 2025).
Figure 8 - Declining Humanitarian Aid and Global Risk Hotspots.
To put it more in perspective, the director of ACAPS, Lars Peter Nissen, came to give a lecture on the humanitarian aid sector. He has responded to almost every major disaster you have heard of. He was on the ground leading emergency relief in the 2008 Myanmar Cyclone, the 2010 Haiti earthquake, the 2010 Pakistan flood, and the Syrian conflict between 2012 and 2015. A folklore hero in the Humanitarian sector. But something he told us really struck me to the core.
The entire global humanitarian aid budget is less than the size of the global chewing gum industry. You heard that right. The gum you find in Walmart or have in your purse collectively has access to larger funds than the entire humanitarian aid budget each year. And the worst part is, the bubble gum industry is booming and expected to grow in the coming decades (see Figure 9).
Collectively, the global ODA and humanitarian aid budget may decline further, despite the increased rate of climate disasters, poverty, and conflicts around the world.
Figure 9 - The Chewing Gum Industry
The consequences of this will be a rise in food insecurity, childhood malnutrition, and poverty levels, while child literacy, disease prevention & treatment, and livelihoods will decline. The cuts in the UN funding build on top of existing cuts to ODA and humanitarian aid.
The cumulative effect will be widespread and stark as international development and humanitarian agencies make staffing cuts in their Headquarters and their field missions. Life-long international civil servants and humanitarians are in the process of being let go, reducing their ability to make an impact and answer the call to service.
To be frank, we are in uncharted territory with little compass on how to proceed. Rotary International was actively involved in the founding of the United Nations, as 49 Rotarians from over 20 countries took part in the signing of the UN charter. The United Nations is as much a part of Rotary history as Rotary is part of the UN's.
Figure 10 - UN agency exposure to budget cuts in 2025
Source: IEP (2025).
I will provide snapshots of two acute humanitarian hotspots in the world as shown in Figure 11. This will give an idea of where the challenges are now.
- Sudan - Over 12 million people have been displaced because of conflict since 2023. Over 30.4 million are facing acute hunger and famine. Collectively, over 64 million people need aid across the Horn of Africa (Eastern part), including Sudan, Ethiopia, and Somalia.
- Haiti - Over half of the population, 5.5 million, need humanitarian assistance, and the rest live in acute hunger. A significant portion of children are displaced and lack permanent homes or shelter. The UN budget in 2024 was only 45% funded. It will likely decline further this year.
Source: https://www.thenewhumanitarian.org/analysis/2025/01/08/humanitarian-crises-demand-your-attention-now
Figure 11 - Humanitarian Hotspots around the world
Source: The Humanitarian Open Street Map (2025).
With the decline in ODA, humanitarian aid, and UN agency funding, these vulnerability hotspots will only worsen in the coming years. The time to reengage is now. Otherwise, these spots of red on the map will only grow as climate change, poverty, and conflicts worsen.
Furthermore, as these intensify, it will make the seven Rotary focus areas harder to achieve in the long term. Already, we are seeing a surge in Polio cases with the absence of international aid funding that provided healthcare services in developing countries.
What Do We Do Now? Answering the Call to Service
What has been described above is current data and projects of the decline in ODA, humanitarian aid, and UN agency budgets. These reductions are caused by multiple contributing factors, which include changing political priorities, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, COVID-19, and general uncertainty across all donor countries. I have presented these changes as best as I can with data and studies that I have found.
However, I would like to emphasize that this is not a collapse of international aid, humanitarian assistance, or the UN. It is a decline and shift in the entire system and the way it will be conducted in the future. But it is not destiny.
Other countries may decide to fill in the gaps in foreign aid left by USAID and the UK, such as China, the Gulf States, Norway, South Africa, Turkey, Brazil, Japan, and others. But the gap will be large to fill, and the priorities may shift over time, becoming more politicized. The private sector will also have a larger role. Regardless, the present crisis has shown the inefficiencies of having aid being predominantly Western-led and showcased the structural dependency of aid recipients on three main funding sources. Overall, it made the aid system less adaptable to shocks and changes.
As stated before, the current aid crisis is not destiny. We can still decide what is important and act based on our values to do good and be of service. In fact, these sharp declines in funding mean that every $ of aid will become even more important. ODA does NOT include donations and finance from the private sector and civil society. Rotary International is not included in these estimates.
This means that the work that you do and contribute to as Rotarians is more needed than ever. The amount of global grants and international projects you support is needed. The donations and calls for assistance when a disaster strikes are needed. The Rotary's generosity and commitment to public service are needed. Your creativity, ingenuity, and resources are needed.
As Rotarians, you can claim the space that governments have stepped away from. You can decide how your tax dollars are spent and whether the ODA and Humanitarian budgets deserve more than or less than 1% of the total national GDP. We just need to realize what is good, see the gaps/impacts, and do what is right. Little by little, we can make the global humanitarian aid budget larger than the chewing gum industry, and enjoy our gum too.
Would you like to know more about what you can do through Rotary? Choose an area you are passionate about and volunteer your time to support it. You have the seven Rotary Action Areas.
Check out these links below to see how you can get involved and fund important projects that can save the lives of others. In a future of greater uncertainty, what we develop now can have a lasting impact for all.
- Find Ways to Give: https://www.rotary.org/en/get-involved/ways-to-give
- Donate: https://my.rotary.org/en/donate
- Join a Rotary Action Group: https://www.rotary.org/en/rotary-action-groups
- Educate Yourself by Doing the Rotary Positive Peace Academy Training: https://www.positivepeace.academy/rotary
- Become a Global Ambassador with the Institute for Economics & Peace: https://www.economicsandpeace.org/training/iep-ambassador-program/
Want to learn more about where I got my data, charts, and information from? Ready for a deep dive? Check out these resources below to explore further.
- Institute for Economics & Peace: https://www.economicsandpeace.org/reports/
- Official Development Assistance: Geopolitical Tensions, Economic Constraints, and Shifting Priorities (2025) IEP Report: https://www.economicsandpeace.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Official-Development-Assistance.pdf
- ACAPS: https://www.acaps.org/en/
- The New Humanitarian: https://www.thenewhumanitarian.org/opinion/2025/04/16/what-if-we-stopped-aid-altogether-refugee-uganda
- https://www.thenewhumanitarian.org/analysis/2025/01/08/humanitarian-crises-demand-your-attention-now
- Humanitarian Open Street Map: https://www.hotosm.org/updates/announcing-our-open-maps-for-humanitarian-needs-campaign/
- Project Syndicate Piece: Development Without Aid by Minouche Shafik: https://www.project-syndicate.org/onpoint/aid-cuts-call-for-new-development-framework-by-minouche-shafik-2025-04
As always, thank you for reading my blog. Thank you for supporting my journey as a Rotary Global Grant Scholar for the Environment at Lund University in Sweden. Till next time!
P.S.S. You get a nice certificate if you finish the Rotary Positive Peace Academy training.
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